An Investment Diary

2011-06-26T20:47:00.002-04:00

My 2010 position in Silver Wheaton brought gains of 100%, give or take a few dollars. I also had a small position in Premium Exploration which i thought had great potential as a gold exploration company. Their properties seemed to be extremely valuable but I sold my position at the end of the year for just a slight gain, which turned out to be a bit soon. Over the following weeks the stock did a major run up in price which would have been nice, but now it sits just about where i sold. The reason i sold my positions at the end of the year was so that i could switch from paper precious metals investments to physical metals investments. My research throughout the year taught me alot about the nature of our crisis as compared to other crisis's suffered by the US and other nations throughout history. I learned about the transfer in wealth from cash to tangible assets like gold and silver. So at the beginning of the 2011 year i purchased a 100oz bar of
.999 fine silver for $30 an ounce and paid $100 for shipping and insurance. In 2010 I started with $1600 which i doubled to just about $3200 by december. I then purchased the bar for $3100 and later two small 1oz bars for just under $100 with shipping.
Less than 3 months after my purchase silver was riding $50oz. Thats a gain of 62%.
During these summer months the price of silver has been beatin back by a combination of massive commercial shorts, in an effort to supress the price, and the natural summertime selloff which happens nearly on cue every year. Notoriously the fall and spring months are best for precious metals while the summer is usually the slowest.
I do expect that by years end we'll be back up near the $50 price range.

Late June, 2011

2011-06-26T17:12:00.005-04:00

God its been a long time since i've been here. Its quite interesting to read over my postings from almost 2 years ago. I find it invigorating and motivating to see how passionate i was about investing and expanding my knowledge. I'm happy to report that some of my thoughts were on the money, and that my early research was in the right direction. Though i can say i was wrong about some things. So here i am nearly 2 years later in front of my computer sharing my thoughts about investing.

What i've learned since my last post is this... investing is alot like the game of poker. Why do you think so many of the same people reach the finals table every year? because their the luckiest people on earth? No, its because its a game of skill.

There are thousands of people out there on tv or in magazines that give their opinion everyday. Most of them couldnt be more wrong. Its like a doctor telling a cancer patient that they must start chemo and radiation as soon as possible, without understanding that chemo and radiation are actually proven not to work. Almost every doctor in the country responds to cancer with that same advice, because thats what they grew up knowing and thats what they learned in school, and thats what rakes in billions of dollars every year. Its those people out there getting ridiculed on tv for saying something against the grain. For the most part, those are the people who have an actualy understanding.

Something I learned when i was young is that most people dont really know whats going on.

" the reason the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the middle class just struggles with debt is because financial education takes place at home, not in school." Robert Kiyosaki

How true! and i wonder why the very essence of financial success has never entered the public classroom? What is it that seperates the rich and the poor and middle class? its the understanding of investing! I told this to some friends of mine over a drink at the local bar and they seemed extremely interested in what i was saying (i mean who doesnt want to have money). About 2 weeks later one of them approached me, very excitedly, and said that he had taken me seriously and he had begun investing. He said "ya i've started a roth IRA, and im going to start putting in a $100 a month and hopefully double my contributions every year". I should have told him it was a horrible idea; maybe i will when i see him next. That is not investing. The point of investing is that at the end of the year you've generated income with minimal personal involvement.

"when your yearly income derived from investments is enough to cover your yearly living expenses with some left over for growth, you are wealthy."

Anyway, the point of the story is that saving us currency at this point is like saving an ice cube for later. The rate of inflation of the currency supply is only escalating. It took 200 years for the US to create $825 Billion in paper money;known as the currency supply. Since 2009 the currency supply has increased to over $3 trillion.
Thats and expansion of nearly 4 times. Below i've posted a video which shows the calculations of some austrian economists who have actually figured out mathematically the "point of no return" in the case of a failing economy.
As you'll see, we're well past "the point of no return". There are really only 2 options for us now and neither have the best interests of the "savers" in mind.
However, for those that are prepared and educated, this will be an extremely profitable time.

The Point of No Return: Part 1

The Point of No Return: Part 2

2009-11-30T20:03:00.002-05:00

I have a feeling that there will be another down trend in the equity markets shortly.
you'd think a down trend in equities would drag down commodities to, as it did in the crash of 2008. But, i think that because of the severity of the worldwide debt, and massive liquidity ("stimulus", money printing), many commodities that would have usually tumbled will tend to have minimal downward movement, remain unscathed, or actually make gains. When the markets start a downtrend, investors are leaving equities and looking for a safer investment, typically the US Dollar, but because of its instability I think that investors will search for something else, a physical asset to preserve their wealth.

2009-11-23T21:25:00.002-05:00

Today is November 23, 2009. I believe that WWPW will have a price jump starting tomorrow. The volume over the past couple days has been increasing, and today it closed above its nearest resistance level. As long as the level holds early on I think there will be a nice increase.

"Damn it feels good....."

2009-11-17T18:00:00.003-05:00

About two months ago I had a conversation with my father. We discussed economics, particularly the condition of the US economy and its relation to the global economy. I argued that because of the "recession", most nations are commited to creating serious liquidity to try and jumpstart their local economies. This will lead to serious inflationary issues and likewise the rise in demand for commodity based currency, especially precious metals. The US is no exception. Right now the condition of the US economy is so unstable and so lop-sided that we are commited to either printing money or borrowing it to support our way of life. We import more than we export, we spend more than we make, even the nations that used to lend money to us are thinking twice now.
The US Dollar is the world's reserve currency, which means that it is the largest and most depended on currency the world has to offer; almost. Gold, the mother of precious metals, is the only currency that is more stable and more dependable than the US Dollar. The two currencies are inversely related, meaning that if the value of one diminishes the value of the other increases. That being said, the value of the US Dollar is in the most dire straits it has ever known, which is why I believe that the value of gold will continue to increase greatly.
On those grounds I told my father that I believed that the precious metals were the most secure investments for the coming years. The price of silver tends to rise about twice that of gold, and the price of a silver mining stock tends to rise about twice that of silver itself. So by purchasing stocks in a silver mining company I increase my earnings by nearly 4 times.
It felt good when my parents came clean and admitted that my predictions were right.
The price of gold now sits at $1140.00, more than a 14% increase since our initial discussion.

Serial Killer Mentality

2009-09-11T15:22:00.003-04:00

today I learned that there is no room for emotion in investing.
If you make a move, it better be for a strategic reason, and the minute that
reasoning no longer adds up dump the position. Cutting a loss is potentially the hardest thing for the majority of investors to do. But after watching other successful traders strategies I realized that the only way to make it is to be cold about your trades. Treat it like an enemy, watch it, understand its movements and then strike when a weakness is revealed.

An End, A Beginning, and a Fresh Outlook....

2009-09-08T17:45:00.004-04:00

It appears that Friday was the last day of work for me at unique landscapes. I guess im glad in some way because it forces me to look for a consistent, year round job. I've known for a long time now that landscaping was not a career move, but I do like doing small jobs on the side. So, not that its a career choice, but now I'm looking for a more reasonable job, possibly less physically demanding. Hopefully something good comes along but I dont have very long to get situated here, I definately cant take a big lag in pay.
So aside from the here and now of my employment I think I've finally made the realization that I would like to get more involved with investing. I'm going to start out as a personal investor(which is where i stand), and then work towards creating an investment consultation/capital management firm. I believe I'd be good at it because I have a passion for investments. I love to learn about all kinds of investing; real estate, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc, But the thing I've realized about investing in the markets is that your capital stays liquid. It can be relocated within mere hours from one extreme to another, you can take advantage of a run in oil prices today and a fall the next. There is always a balance, its like physics where energy is never lost, its just transferred. Whenever something is down, something else is up. If you invest in realestate you are commited until you sell the property, in the early 2000's that was great but now its horrible. In a situation like this, you must know far in advance what moves you need to make to put them in motion.

So for this reason I know that investing is for me. I also think that Id like to try and create some program for younger people to invest. They need to learn that being a carpenter is great but you need to understand money and how it works in order to be really successful. I've never met a young person who doesnt want to succeed, it just seems that the normative education and life experiences teach them the opposite of what it takes to make it, and it eliminates alot of peoples potential. so I think its the most important thing to educate young people about investing, especially now.

I am also going to start some sort of publicly owned holdings firm. I believe that its a fairly quick way to amass large amounts of capital for investments. Ultimately this is what will open up the possibilities for serious investments.

I need to study, global economics more, and it seems that its much better to learn from other successful investors rather than TV.
I also need to study the law surrounding these endeavours, as well as the proper certifications and licenses that are required, and the basic layout of the business structure(how does it work?).

Anyway, for now I still say hold the short positions on the EQUITIES and FINANCIAL MARKETS. Once they drop wait for a good entrance point in a out of the country silver or gold company that is unhedged.

Eureka!! I was right on my gold trend assumptions

2009-09-02T18:02:00.004-04:00

About a month ago now I began pointing out two trends in the gold chart that I believed had a good amount of validity. It just so happens that my assumptions were correct as today gold has broken above the upper convergence trend line to approx. $980. I think that if we break $980 our next major resistance is the $1000 level.

Since september is notoriously the strongest month for the precious metals I think what we're likely to see here is gold prices between the $990 and $1000 range. I have a feeling that they will ultimately fall back a bit in november because its traditionally a weaker month for the metal. So for now my thoughts are this....

Hold you short positions in the equities, especially financials for the next few weeks.
If china's Shanghai index is any foreshadow we have a few weeks of downside movement ahead of us. At that point I think I will sit tight until gold prices fall down a bit in november and then I will hop into a silver position for the coming of the new year. If you look at historical charts you'll notice that precious metals tend to do well with the start of the new year, especially around late january/february.

September Grass is the sweetest kind.....

2009-08-31T16:07:00.005-04:00

Its even better when your portfolio is growing!

I made my move into a short position on the DJIA today as it is the last day of August and it seems the trend has already begun. Im using the proshares short ETF to gain my position. I have a feeling that the financials are going to get hit the hardest this fall because their fundamentals are by far the worst out there but I've choosen to go the safe root. The way things have been going so far it just seems like the government almost wont let anything bad happen to the banks. I know that they are in a horrible position and they are most likely going to get slammed but I just dont want to take the risk. I guess I'm still to new at this whole thing and I have trouble trusting my gut feelings yet. But I do believe the financial shorts will most likely be prove more profitable.

I always enjoy september, almost as if I may never see it again.
Oh how I hate to say goodbye to the summer months, but

Sitting on the Sidelines

2009-08-29T18:11:00.007-04:00

Right now I find myself extremely eager. I have a strong desire to trade but the markets just seem like their in a very weird position. There are very convincing arguments coming from two opposing views; the first swearing the rally will continue because of liquidity in stimulus and signs of "green shoots", the other stating the markets are overbought and a correction is due very soon. I've always found it easier to clear my head when I remove myself from the situation and do something else, maybe even take a weekend getaway to the beach. So this past weekend I took a trip to the Vineyard to enjoy the beaches and island quality of life. With a clear head I reviewed all the information I've gathered and came to the conclusion that the current markets are no place for my money. I believe that in the short term there will be a correction in the markets.
I am waiting for the right time to enter a short position. I think I will most likely short the financial sector because they have the worst underlying fundamentals. Right now alot of the wallstreet gurus are on leave, but since september and october are traditionally the worst months I believe their return will spur a stiff correction for the financials.

I do believe though that companies directly effected by the stimulus will do excellent in the longer term. The government has a few major changes that they will push no matter what, and the money will flow towards their ideals. The first one is healthcare, Obama has vowed to digitize all health records by 2012, thats as close to a guarantee as you'll ever get.
The second change will have to do with natural gas. The US has an abundance of natural gas and yet we continue to use foreign oil. We could save trillions if you were to use our own resources wisely, which Obama will most likely push.
Third is the fact that the US has always been known as the information and technology giant, and in order to maintain that crucial status we've got to push technology.. and hard! We can't let ourself slip behind in this field, so anything linked to new wave technology will most likely see serious gains in the future as the entire world evolves.
Fourth is the need for Cleantech. Alternative energy, water purification, recycling, etc. All of these fields and more will grow intensly as the world moves into a cleantech era.
Fifth is the oil shortage, its a guaranteed gainer. There is only so much and the price will only grow as the supply diminishes, especially with BRIC economies growing dependence.
Sixth is the Smart grid. Our nation electrical grid is still based in the early 1900's. We need a major overhaul in the way we produce and manage our electricity. And this new smartgrid push is no joke. It has to happen if we as a country are going to grow and evolve.

So those are my potential investment ideas for the longer term, but like I said Im going to sit tight until things make more sense.

The Steam has run out.......

2009-08-14T16:52:00.007-04:00

All data points to a market correction!

If you check the chart data for equites, gold, and the USD they all seem to fall right into line for a market correction. I'll show you what I mean....

On the DJIA chart below notice the areas that I've circled. Up top you'll see the relative strength Index(RSI) which has just begun its decent from a huge peak; a good sign that some weakness is to come. Also notice that the MACD lines at the bottom of the chart have just turned down from a serious peak as well, and they have crossed paths, usually a sign of a downturn in the chart. The Dow has been losing some momentum in the past few days and this is the first time in five weeks that it closes down at weeks end. All of this paired with some not so good retail sales and some scattered negative sentiments should point to a market correction.

Typically when the markets turn down, the Dollar becomes a safe haven and gains ground. So again if you look at the circled areas you'll notice the corresponding evidence in the RSI and the MACD. Looks like the dollar could have a rally; how big I dont know.

All of the inverse evidence can be seen in the gold chart below, as it moves opposite the dollar. The RSI still shows above average strength however the chart is for the 13th of august and doesnt include todays negative closing. I believe that the government is going to pull the country from this recession by any means necessary(increased gov. spending). Likewise inflation is bound to follow once the trend begins, so I think gold is a great asset to any portfolio however any purchases should be postponed until the price comes down a bit with this correction. Again I dont know how extensive the correction will be given that there is still a major mortgage crisis unfolding, and we all know how bad news can effect the markets.

I positioned myself in Proshares Short Dow 30 (DOG) to try and gain from the downturn. There is an ultrashort position named DXD and also there are financial short positions which are SEF and SKF. This fall we're going to see the first major spike in option Arm resets, so a real estate short could be in order as well. All though it must be timed very well, for minimal exposure.

Another Potential Gold Chart Trend

2009-08-13T23:01:00.003-04:00

Market Pop could Boost Dollar

2009-08-12T19:15:00.005-04:00

The market rally may be very close to hitting its peak. There are alot of mixed feelings about the markets which seem extremely overbought. Is there really enough supporting data to jusitfy the extended rally? Irrationality seems to have taken the reins recently as markets surged higher on only better-than-forcasted earnings and positive words from the fed. There seems to be more supporting evidence against a recovery than for one, which is why I think that our rally could return to bear market before long. The third quarter could still hold positive earnings for some businesses, especially those that benefit from the cash-for-clunkers programs and the like. The second wave of the mortgage crisis will most likely amplify the downturn as negative sentiments and bad news mix to create a greater sell-off. move into short positions on the Markets and Financials, Real Estate shorts are a good position as well. I may also buy a small stake in Atlantic Energy Solutions(AESO) as it seemed to perform well during the last market downturn.

Gold Chart Convergance

2009-08-05T17:52:00.003-04:00

After todays performance it seems as though the convergance trend I posted yesterday has a higher level of validity. If the chart continues along the trend we should see a bottow around the 935-940 level and from there we could see a breakout to the upside.
There is a chance obviously that the breakout could be to the downside but I think its unlikely. The converging boundary lines are leading higher and thats usually a good sign that the breakout will be a positive one.

Another Potential Gold Chart Trend

2009-08-04T18:50:00.004-04:00

Whether Gold Breaks the 980 mark now or later its all good news!

Natural Gas Outlook: begin taking profits

2009-08-04T17:59:00.004-04:00

I shifted my position on Natural Gas Fund UNG today to begin taking profits. I really hate to change my stance before the winter months because normally thats when price increases would take place. If you bought around the low 12's when I originally posted my buy short order you would be up about 10% now, which isn't a bad gain by any means for under 30 days. The reason I had only suggested to buy for short amount of time is the same reason I'm postponing my buys on all other commodities right now; I believe the "bull market" will come to an end this fall. I've named some of the reasons for a turn around in earlier posts but to reiterate; second wave of real estate/ credit crisis, an overbought market, poor underlying fundamentals, unchanged or growing unemployment, and very low consumer spending. These are many reasons that the huge bull market is a fake. We're not even half way through the real estate disaster that started the whole mess, right now we're in the eye of the storm.
I would reccommend holding your shares long but the supply is so great and there have been so many new discoveries that I think the prices will be held down until a greater use for gas surfaces. It would be a great alternative for fueling our cars. Buy the lows when the markets turn down if anything, Im sure there will be some profits to make from there.

Gold Chart Outlook

2009-08-04T17:02:00.006-04:00

The uptrend continued today with a gain of 1.14% while the dollar seemed to flounder around not really making any significant movements. What we accomplished today was a hurtle over the resistance level around the 960 and now the next resistance level we're looking at is around 980 so actually a great feat today. Once we break through that 980 we'll be ready for testing the 1000 mark again. I just hope that we can break through 1000 before anything serious starts to take the wind out of the bulls sail. I have a feeling that things will be good throughout august and probably into the October range before people start hearing about the next wave of Real Estate disasters and so on, but no sweat for us because there is always a balance and we've located the other end of the see-saw. So for now we have clear skies with a light breeze, a possible chance of showers tomorrow, but all in all a strong end to a rollercoaster summer.
Thanks for reading, and good luck!

The Rally Continues: Time for the Handoff

2009-08-03T17:39:00.005-04:00

Today we had a huge rally in the markets, and it seems like the Dollar made up for its friday performance.
The bulls have officially taken the reins... let them! Its funny how this always happens, the market works in extremes. First everyone gets scared and people panic (the market gets oversold). Then a natural rally occurs, and some how people become overly bullish (the market becomes over bought).
If you havent already passed off your shares to a speculative bull, I advise you do so.
This market, though very impressive, is getting to the tipping point. Sure we've beat alot of horrible earnings forcasts, but we're seeing minimal consumer spending, excessive unemployment and an ever-looming threat of continued credit carnage spurred by toxic mortgages. The financial sector is about to recieve another aggressive kick in the groin when these option arm's, ALT-A's, and commercial loans begin to default.

So where should you be positioning yourself to benefit from the disaster?
Chances are that when the bears regain control of the markets the dollar will see a decent rally as investors look for a safe haven. That means that commodities will most likely take a hit. I don't think that its necessary to sell off your commodity positions as long as you have some extra funds to average down, but I would recommend holding any purchases until you see a decent pull back. Some other positions that I see as profitable are shorts, especially in the real estate and financial sectors. There are ETF's that are set up to take advantage of bearish moves in different markets. So take any profits on equities pretty quick here and keep your cash ready for attractive prices in gold, oil, silver, and also short positions on financials and real estate.

SEF - Short Dow Jones Financials
SKF - UltraShort Dow Jones Financials (2x leveraged ETF)
SRS - UltraShort Dow Jones Real Estate (2x leveraged ETF)

Friday Overview

2009-07-31T17:56:00.003-04:00

The Dollar is down 1.3% right now for the day and surprisingly the markets didn't move upward very much. I think this is a sign of at least a short term decoupling of the Dollar from the US exchanges, something thats actually more normal than what we've seen recently. The dollar is under a lot of pressure right now from both our foreign creditors who may be starting to diversify their holdings, and also from within as US investors begin to move their money into the more attractive markets. So I think that the decline of the dollar will continue at least for a short time until we hit the next resistance point.

I also think that the markets are due, as I said previously, for a correction sometime soon which may bring the dollar some support. They traded pretty much sideways today as early gains were chewed up by the later day selling.

Oil Prices were up 3.7% to 69.45 today which is great for anyone that listened to me previously and has been buying into the dips; I'm sure there will be more to come.
The facts shows higher oil prices in the coming years with a declining supply, aging infrastructure, increasing demand from emerging markets, etc. so enjoy the ride it should be a good one.

Anyway, thats my cap for the week, remember to get yourself into a solid Canadian Gold or Silver company if you haven't already. Its going to be a money maker, as well as oil, alternative energy, and other commodities.
Another thing I've been thinking about recently is the world's water supply. Places like China have a horrible fresh water situation, and the demand is only growing with the industrialization and population. I'll post on this in more depth next week.
For now have a great weekend!

Oil Stocks: Get in and Average Down

2009-07-31T03:02:00.005-04:00

There are a few reasons I believe the markets will need a correction sometime fairly soon before they continue their long upside trends. First is my gut instinct that tells me nothing ends in months that was created over years. We've seen a major crash in equities since prices peaked in the 4th quarter of 07, and recently an almost equally impressive resurgence in the markets carrying the DOW up a total of 42% since its March lows. It just seems normal for there to be some sort of correction in the market before we continue much higher.
We've had a lot of good news recently with better-than-expected earnings, especially from the banking sector that seemed to help carry the prices higher. However, if you disect the "good news", you'd realize that we're only about half way through the entire real estate crisis, we still have high unemployment numbers coming in every month, we have seriously curbed consumer spending, and we have not many actual revenue increases. The fundamentals haven't improved at all. Most of the profit increases are only due to cost cutting, and the actual increases we do see come from banks like Goldman Sachs and Meryl who have been awarded massive bailout and stimulus injections. They've had billions of dollars that they've been able to leverage and invest in the rising markets to produce these spectacular earnings reports. I just dont think that the "green shoots" are going to hold out forever, just like a drug addict, at some point there must be a withdrawal even if it isn't a total collapse.

Also, at some point the FED is going to have serious pressure to increase the interest rates in order to soak up all of the liquidity, but I just don't see them being able to do it. Just that alone could be enough to cripple the already teetering financial system. However, If they don't raise the rates we'll be looking at creating another serious bubble and ultimately instigating an irreversible inflation cycle.
Their plan is to let the economy stabilize and then hike the rates to soak up the excess liquidity, but I dont know if the government can really afford to pay the rates if they have to.
Whether the Economy recovers or collapses Oil will be a solid investment because either the demand will increase and supply will be short, or the massive liquidity will drive prices up. Commodities in general should be a good place to invest for the coming years as the Asian and other emerging economies continue their development.

My advice is to buy into Oil Stocks now and continue to average down during any weaknesses. The prices will rise long term based on supply and demand imbalances.

Canada for Investments

2009-07-29T17:06:00.005-04:00

The Canadian economy has performed especially well compared across the board, even to other commodity rich nations like Australia, South Africa, and Brazil. The government has done an excellent job during these economic hardships taking precautions to not create a serious inflationary situation like many other nations, and that is why the Canadian markets will continue to provide good investing opportunities into the future. If you've read other material from my blog you'll know that it is not only the number of dollars you make that matters, but how the value of those dollars(or other currency) stands against other currencies, and also against the price of gold.
For that reason I continue to invest in the Canadian exchanges; their currency and economy are in good standing when compared to others, especially their American neighbors(thats us) and it will provide shelter to us from a falling dollar.

The world's largest Creditor nations like China, Japan, Tiawan, etc, are all located on the Asian Continent, and collectively they hold the largest stake in the US Bond market. I feel as though this will leave them exposed when the currency crisis does occur because so much of their capital is tied into the American Dollar. They have recently starting making efforts to diversify out of US Dollars and into more hard assets like commodities, but none the less they have a huge position. For that reason I believe its safer, at least until the crisis occurs, to have your capital positioned in a country that will not be affected as severely. However, once this crisis does occur China and the other asian countries will take the torch for the long haul, and that is the time that I will begin moving heavily into the asian markets. I believe now is a good time to get into the resource markets that these asian countries will demand for growth, but thats for another post.

Recession Proof? Can it Be?

2009-07-22T18:49:00.004-04:00

Atlantic Energy Solutions (AESO:OTC) $0.08

I believe that I may have found a recession proof, or rather a recession loving company. They are in the business of finding more cost effective energy solutions for other businesses. It does seem that during times of recession most businesses will look to cut costs as much as possible and you can only fire so many employees right? All signs are pointing to a more severe, long term recession, as I would think that many businesses would be looking to do two things: get as lean as possible to weather the coming years and also cut energy prices as the cost of oil will not stay low for very long.
If you look at the companies chart below you'll notice that as the market crash occurred their stock price soared, and as the market bottomed and the rally occurred their stock tanked backwards. It could be a beautiful sign.
The only potential negative that I could find had to do with the correlation between oil prices and their stock price. It could be that their PPS increased with the oil price until about July 2008. From there the price of oil crashed but their PPS Continued higher until about February 2009. Did the PPS simply lag behind the price of oil? Is the PPS increase related more to the drop in stocks or the rise in oil? it seems alot closer to the drop in stock prices to me.....

AESO:PK 2 YR CHART

DJIA 5 YR CHART

AVERAGE GAS PRICE CHART(I couldn't get an oil chart picture on here)

Real Estate Collapse to Continue.....

2009-07-20T21:37:00.002-04:00

You think the subprime was bad enough?
Listen to the research these pro's have done and what it shows for our future!

Canada's Oil Reserves + Commodity Currency

2009-07-20T18:13:00.004-04:00

Canadian Oil has long been underestimated as people believe that the US imports the majority of its crude oil from Saudi Arabia and other middle eastern countries. However, quite the opposite is true; the United States, the "oil addict", brings the majority of its oil in from Canada every year, and the numbers keep growing. What most people don't know is that Canadian Oil Reserves could be the largest in the world, as there havn't been any significant discoveries in the middle east in quite some time, and the royal family will not allow an audit of its reserves (whose numbers havn't changed since almost 2006). So as you can tell the Arabic Oil on which the US "depends" is actually in question. Are there really as many barrels in the ground as they say? As a massive emerging economy, China's oil addiction is growing every year as well, and they will need an oil rich nation to depend on in the coming years. Canada's vast reserves of oil make its currency, the Canadian Dollar, what we call a commodity currency. This means that as the dependence on Canadian Oil increases and like wise the profits, the currency will follow suit, so you win on two levels. That is what makes Canada an A+ oil play, especially if the Saudi's are not being truthful about their reserves. This is an excellent investment for the coming years; as the rate of inflation within the US is set to rise the Canadian Dollar will be a good hedge against a devaluing currency. Companies like
Husky Energy(HSE:TSX) will see nice gains through their future and they will also provide you with quarterly dividends in Canadian Currency. The idea behind this investing technique is that when you purchase stocks on a foreign exchange like the Toronto Exchange (TSX) your US Dollars are converted into Canadian Dollars, and likewise down the road when you cash out, your money will be converted back. So you actually profit on 3 levels, first the stock itself will increase in price, second the currency will increase in price (or at least act as a hedge against a sliding US Dollar), and third the dividends are like a sign on bonus that you receive either quarterly or annually based on the company.

Use your head, Invest wisely and the profits will follow beind...

How to Profit from the Natural Gas Rebound

2009-07-20T17:52:00.004-04:00

If your a logical thinker, as I like to believe I am. You'd be questioning the current prices of natural gas. Now I dont believe that the price should be any higher given the current surplus we have, Supply and Demand should always rule the market. However, I do think that in the near future the surplus will begin to dwindle, and there may be a lag between having to much natural gas and having to little, thats how things usually work, from one extreme to the other. Right now the Companies involved with the exploration and production have slowed their pace to a fraction of what it was a year ago, in an effort to cut as many costs as possible. Its only a natural reaction to a sharp price drop; I think that any business owner would try to get as lean as possible, maybe shut down some projects that are currently unneccessary, postpone some explorations that were in the mix, etc.
So as the winter months roll around and the world begins to flip on the heat I would guess that the current surplus would begin to diminish, and as the forcast is for a 2010 economic recovery, the demand for gas (and oil) will increase. So when the demand increases and the surplus fades its going to take time for these companies to get back into their normal production modes, thus producing a lag between supply and demand. There are a few ways to play this rebound in Natural Gas prices, and I believe that one of the most profitable buys right now is the United States Natual Gas Fund (UNG:NYSE). The price on this Fund has been beaten down so severly that just a rebound to normative price levels would mean nearly a 200% gain. Another great buy is Chesapeake Energy (CHK:NYSE), here you would be looking at a 100% gain if prices rebound back to their early 2008 levels. Can we expect a full recovery? no one knows for sure, but right now there is a serious offset if supply and demand which is affectin the price, and once these imbalances begin to correct we will see some sort of price gain.

Good Luck and Safe Investing

Wind Energy, Green Energy, Energy of the Future

2009-07-11T19:03:00.003-04:00

Its no surprise that our dependence on fossil fuels is a dangerous one. With the worlds demand for energy growing at an unprecidented rate it is time to look elsewhere for our future energy sources. Renewable energy is no longer a back-burner idea. Its something that investors are pumping billions into, as its being put into action around the world. China's plans are to increase their wind power to service 30% of there energy requirements by year 2020. Thats nearly 100GW or 100,000MW.
The USA isnt far behind with projections of nearly 20% of its energy being generated through wind power by 2020. Fossil fuels are going to become more and more expensive as the world reserves diminish each year by approximately 4.5%.
There hasn't been any large fossil fuel discoveries in years now, and alot of the major wells are begining to dry up. The Saudi's claim to have some 250 Billion barrels of oil reserves remaining but they refuse to allow an audit to provide proof of these estimates.
The Chinese have taken the lead as the largest wind turbine manufacturers with two of their companies pushing aggresive distribution plans. GoldWind and Sinovel are the two largest chinese companies that have really stepped up and taken over the turbine market, however there are some American companies that will be a large part of the show also. Vestas has a 20% market share in the alternative energy sector and there are others that fall into the same category. I believe that the best places to pull profit from this huge new energy sector are going to be the small cap companies that get into the action on the ground floor.
One of these companies is A-Power Energy Generation(APWR). Currently trading at about $8.36, this company has a huge position. Its partnered with GE, and has alot of major alliances and a nice contract with chinese Shenyang Power Alliance. This company could easily be trading at $20/ share at this time next year.

What the Price of Gold is Telling Us...

2009-07-09T22:38:00.004-04:00

By: Ron Paul

This speech was given by Congressman Ron Paul on April 25, 2006 before the House of Representatives. It reveals a level of economic understanding that I believe very few politicians have today. Within his lengthy speech Congressman Paul covers every detail of our current economic situation. He explains the history behind his belief in a "commodity" currency (gold standard or an equivalent thereof)and the resulting economic stability. He explains the negative effects and instability that result from an alternative "fiat" currency, which is the precise position we are currently entangled in. And he explains the necessary changes that need to be made to correct the problems. He uses a very painful, yet truthful, analogy to convey his point.

"The best analogy to our affinity for government spending, borrowing, and inflating is that of a drug addict who knows if he doesn’t quit he’ll die; yet he can’t quit because of the heavy price required to overcome the dependency. The right choice is very difficult, but remaining addicted to drugs guarantees the death of the patient, while our addiction to deficit spending, debt, and inflation guarantees the collapse of our economy."

I believe that Congressman Paul is a wise and honest man, he understands where we are headed and where we should be headed. He should be a very strong candidate for future presidential runnings.

Canadian Oil Sands

2009-07-03T15:16:00.004-04:00

Though the Alberta Oil Sands have rightfully inherited the title as the "worlds dirtiest oil", they do contain almost 97% of Canada's crude oil supply. Before the collapse in oil prices and the start of our current economic crisis the oil sands produced nearly 3/4 of a million barrels of synthetic crude oil each day, with a forecast of doubling the output by 2015. There is alot of work involved in tapping these unusual resources and until fairly recently the price of oil did not allow for such expensive projects. For each barrel of oil that is pulled from the sands the forest above must first be cut down, then approximately 2 tons of peat moss must be removed and finally about 2 more tons of sand must be removed from which to extract the oil; a very time consuming task. However, the majority of the oil contained within the Alberta Sands was until very recently unretrievable. It was so far below the surface and so frozen that it was impossible to extract. But with the new "in-situ" extraction methods such as SAGD (steam assisted gravity drainage) it becomes possible to retreive the oil in a cost effective manor.
The USA has been searching for a way to cut its dependency on OPEC oil for years now, and it seems like in the future the Alberta Oil Sands may be just the relief we've been waiting for.
My theory is that the economic crisis will continue to stunt the growth and development of the Oil Sands for the coming years. However, once things begin to level and the demand for oil starts to rise, the USA will continue its search for an OPEC competitor, and this is when activity in the Sands will resume its course with a vengence. There are also alot of environmental issues that are currently associated with the Alberta Sands but I believe the new "in-situ" extraction methods like the SAGD system will allow for a much cleaner and more affordable extraction of the crude oil contained there in the future. I believe that the sands will be an excellent investment home for the years to come, especially since so many of the worlds major reserves are on their way out.
To get the most bang for your buck here i think you should look for smaller companies that own rights to currently under-developed pieces of the Alberta Sands, as they will be serious candidates for future growth or buyouts.

Emerging Markets for Investment

2009-07-02T21:37:00.004-04:00

The term Emerging Markets is used to describe a countries social or business activity in the process of rapid growth and industrialization.

The complete list of Emerging Markets is as follows:
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Morrocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey

Some of the Big Emerging Market(BEM) Economies are:
Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey.
The Largest Emerging Markets can be described with some new terms like BRIMC:
Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, and China

The two largest Emerging Markets are India and China

Why the Meltdown Should have suprised No One- Peter Schiff

2009-07-01T19:04:00.002-04:00

Currency Crisis, The Fall of the US Dollar

2009-06-24T17:46:00.002-04:00

6 WAYS TO PROFIT, WHILE OTHERS LOSE EVERYTHING...

There is a major currency crisis around the corner here, and lately I've been answering a lot of questions about what people can do to keep their money safe.
Well here are my thoughts all laid out.

What is a Currency Crisis?

currency crisis is a fancy way of saying that there will be serious volatility within the currency markets. Different currencies will drop drastically and others will rise. A long time ago different currencies were based off of gold, mostly because gold is a physical asset that cannot be misrepresented. How much does 1 ounce of gold cost in each countries currency? that was how the values of each different currency were defined.
Over the past 30-35 years things have shifted and the currency standard switched from being based on gold to being based off the US Dollar. Most likely because we were the most profitable and powerful nation. Well throughout that time the United States has dug itself into a serious hole. We've totally strayed from our origins, we no longer are a production country, we no longer are a profitable country, and we no longer are a saving country. In fact we've amassed the largest amount of debt that the world has ever known. and within the same time period we've also managed to start consuming more than we produce (spending more than we make). So as I'm sure your well aware of, this activity is not acceptable and can only last for so long before there is no one that will lend you more money.
So now our country has worked itself into a position where we've borrowed every cent that we can, and we are unable to produce enough exports to even come close to paying off our debts.

What happens when someone borrows money and then has no means to pay it back?

Thats right. they file for bankruptcy!

No one will lend us money, and we can't make enough to pay off the trillions that we've already borrowed. And we've made commitments for healthcare and tarp bailout plans that amount to trillions more. We are in a serious pickle....

WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

during this currency crisis, the US Dollar, maybe along with other currencies, will fall to almost complete worthlessness(for each dollar we have, we owe more than a dollar), and a new currency standard will be created. Most likely something that is not a paper money. Something tangible and physical. While the Dollar collapses, the people of the US will suffer from a hyperinflation period, and essentially we will see a Great Depression 2.0. Commercial realestate will most likely fall apart as businesses can no longer afford to own their properties, etc.

6 WAYS TO PROFIT FROM THE FALL OF THE USA!

1. Take your cash out of the bank

In the 1930's when the great depression hit, banks began to go under. There were lines of people outside trying to get their cash, but it was to late for many of them. When the government goes bankrupt FDIC and DIF no longer protect your money.

2. Exchange your US Dollars for Another currency

If you have $10,000 I'm really happy for you, but when the dollar collapses its still not going to be worth much. So my advice is to conver at least a good portion of your cash into a different currency, like Canadian, that way it will not lose as much value, or it may even grow in value.

3. Gold and Silver
BUY- physical gold and silver in coins or bar forms

Gold and Silver move inversely from the Dollar, so when the major currency crisis starts to unfold, gold and silver will begin to move north very quickly. And seeing that this will most likely be the largest Currency collapse the world has ever seen, Gold and Silver will produce gains that likewise the world has never seen.

PS. Silver prices are far below those of gold because silver is a secondary currency standard and there is only about 1/10th the amount of silver as there is gold. However when the world is in turmoil and investors and seeking a safe haven, silver has the tendency to move north much quicker than gold as the demand increases quickly and the supply is still very short.

4. Gold and Silver
BUY- stocks in gold and silver mining companies, outside the US

If you hand your US stock broker US Dollars, no matter how much of a return you make, you will get back US Dollars, which may be completely worthless. my advice to to go outside the USA and buy stocks in gold and silver mining companies so that when you go to get your payout, it is not in US Dollars.

5. Commodities
BUY- stocks in commodities, outside the US

They are fairly low right now and will most likely see a nice jump in price or the next months.

6. Natural Gas & Oil
BUY- stocks in natural gas & oil companies, outside the US

Natural gas & Oil are undervalued right now, and when things go south they should see some gains. especially when people realize that there isn't as much oil as they are led to believe.

U.S. GeoThermal Inc (HTM)

2009-06-12T18:23:00.002-04:00

$1.85

US GeoThermal Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, development and utilization of geothermal resources in the Western Region of the United States of America. As of March 31, 2008, the Company operated two power plants, Raft River Unit I in Idaho, through its joint venture with Raft River I Holdings, LLC, a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs, and a plant located in the San Emidio Desert in Nevada. GTH also has several other properties under development or exploration. Raft River Unit I commenced commercial operations in January 2008. As of March 3, 2008, Raft River Unit I sold between 9.6 and 11.7 megawatts of power to Idaho Power Company under a net 13 megawatt power purchase agreement (PPA) which expires in 2032. On May 1, 2008, the Company acquired the geothermal assets, including a 3.6 net megawatt nameplate generating capacity power plant, from Empire Geothermal Power LLC and Michael B. Stewart, located in Washoe County, Nevada.

These GeoThermal Stocks have seen some really nice climbs in the past week or so, but they should continue to climb over the next months. Although its not a true penny stock, all Alternative energy companies should have a very promising future as the globe begins to turn increasingly environmentally friendly. Which can mean gains of up 100% in the coming year or so.

US GeoThermal Inc. dropped from over a $4 high in late 2007 all the way to about $0.80 in the beginning of this year, and now it has begun moving upward again. I bought in about 50% of my position at the current price, and then I'm going to wait and see if there are any dips for me to get some cheap shares with my other 50%.

Stock Alert - Stem Cell Research

2009-02-07T12:50:00.000-05:00

originally posted on Jan. 7 2009

The two companies I'm interested in here are BioTime Inc.(BTIM) and Advanced Cell Technology Inc.(ACTC). Advanced Cell Technology recently licensed patents to BioTime Inc. for amongst other things, the commercialization of stem cell medicine. Currently the Bush Administration had passed a bill which eliminated the Congressional funding for stem cell research.
The entire Stem Cell Community is awaiting President Obama's decision on whether or not to allow government funding for their research. If Obama does decided to allow the funding I believe that These companies could be looking at a jump in value, however that is not my main concern.
Looking into the future, Regenerative Medicine could bring forth an entirely new type of medicine. It could be the solution to so many of the problems we currently face. Which in turn could create a multi-billion dollar marketplace, leaving BioTime Inc. as the patent holder for the commercialization of this intellectual property.
The patents are for a specific type of Stem Cell work. The great thing about it is that real embryonic cells are not required. Unlike some of the controversial work done by other companies which require stem cells from an actual human embryo, ACTC and BTIM have developed a way to transform an average skin cell into an embryonic state stem cell. This relieves all of the controversy associated with the research.
I believe that if this market is going to turn into something, these companies will be at the base of it all.

Remember to never invest any money that you can not afford to lose.